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"The one thing that our economy is going to be guaranteed is a wartime economy," Daniel told Business Insider in an interview. Interest in ultra-bearish takes on the market or the economy is on the up based on raw search data. Google searches for "stock market crash" have jumped 17% over the last quarter, while searches for "economic crash" have surged 15%, according to search analytics firm Glimpse. In both communities, users are sounding the alarm on all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios for the economy, with some predicting a stock market crash, housing market crash, or a total collapse of the US financial system. "Others may not be as lucky and could be constrained by them, and that could color their outlooks for the stock market and the economy."
Persons: , Daniel, subreddit, Freddie Smith, Smith, aren't, Jonathan Rose, he's, Rose, there's, that's, Richard Sylla Organizations: Service, Genesis Gold, US, Northwestern Mutual, New York University Locations: Washington ,, Reddit, Florida
Markets typically respond to Fed comments with price swings in either direction, and recent research shows they are particularly reactive to Powell. And given the Fed's "data-dependent" approach, the baseline can change rapidly as new economic reports are released. "So now we're stuck with a system where there's only one view, there's only one outlook, it's a baseline outlook. And there's really no way to understand the Fed's thinking about where are the risks." Watch the video above to learn more about how the Fed's busy speaking schedule can create market volatility and how it balances transparency with market impact.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Levin, , Levin, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Fed, Federal, Center for Economic Policy Research, Dartmouth College, Federal Reserve Locations: Federal, what's
The increase follows falls of 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter of last year. The Bank of England now expects UK GDP to expand by 0.5% this year, double the pace forecast in February, according to projections published Thursday. A growing economy could, however, delay the interest rate cuts widely expected this year. “Stronger GDP growth raises the risk of stronger demand pressures on inflation,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note, adding that Friday’s GDP release “casts doubt” over a cut in June. Annual UK inflation came in at 3.2% last month, a sharp slowdown from a rate above 10% about a year ago.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Nomura, , Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Office, National Statistics, Conservative Party, Labour Party, The Bank of England, P Global . Service, Bank of England Locations: United Kingdom
Traders fear that elevated rates will uphold painfully high borrowing costs for consumers, squeeze corporate profit and weigh down the market. The labor market has stayed strong, consumers have continued spending and stocks have notched repeated record highs. The April jobs report was a welcome sign that the labor market is cooling without cratering. The labor market added just 175,000 positions last month, marking its lowest tally since October 2023 and a sharp cooldown from the upwardly revised 315,000 jobs added in March. First-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to 231,000, the highest level since last August, in another sign that the labor market is cooling.
Persons: , , Jeff Buchbinder, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, April’s, David Russell, Matt Egan, Wally Adeyemo, Read, Diksha Madhok, Narendra Modi, Modi, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Ambani, Ji, ” Modi, Rahul Gandhi Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, CNN, Fed, LPL, ” Treasury, Treasury, Reliance Industries, Adani, Indian National Congress Locations: New York, Thursday’s, , India
New York prosecutors claim he falsified business records to hide a payment to Stormy Daniels in an early act of election interference in 2016. Trump’s base voters have no problems either with his criminal trials or his false claims that he was cheated out of office. Israel may be far from the biggest worry for Trump’s campaignPolls consistently show that voters care most about the economy. And voters who say the economy is very important to their vote backed Trump over Biden 62% to 30%. It’s not clear that heated Republicans attacks on Biden over Israel Thursday will seriously wound him with his own voters.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump –, pollsters, Trump, Stormy Daniels, He’s, Biden outpolls, Trump’s, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Burnett, , ” Biden, , George H.W, Bush, ” Bush, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Israel —, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, Republican Sen, Thom Tillis, GOP Sen, Josh Hawley Organizations: CNN, New, Republican, Biden, Federal, Capitol, Arab American, Hamas, Israel, Israel Thursday, GOP, Capitol Hill, Democratic Locations: Wisconsin, East, Ukraine, Gaza, America, Manhattan, New York, it’s, Israel, United States, Arkansas, Scranton, Gazan, Rafah, Michigan, Missouri
According to the business chamber's survey, just 13% view China as a top investment destination — a record low. EU firms' China operations are 'decoupling' from their headquartersIt's not just the gloomy economy and slowing demand that are weighing on investor confidence. EU firms have also started to "decouple" their operations in China as the number of foreign nationals employed locally falls. It also makes it increasingly difficult for the China operations of the EU firms to get approval from their headquarters. The European business chamber called for "full access to legitimate and trustworthy sources of economic data" in its report.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, It's, Jens Eskelund Organizations: Service, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Business Locations: Europe, France, Serbia, Hungary, China
First-class travel has exhibited special strength, though management noted that can be tied in part to a resurgence of business trips. People taking these loans are more likely to be lower-income with no more than a high school diploma, Lanier said. Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFrozen food maker Tyson Foods has seen consumers shifting more to eating at home than the quick-service restaurants it supplies. It's also important to remember that lower-income Americans were feeling financial pressures before the pandemic, said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. Airbnb touted interest in travel to events like the Paris Olympics and the European Cup in Germany this summer.
Persons: there's, It's, Christophe Le Caillec, underscoring, Blair Lanier, Lanier, McDonald's, Tyson, Daniel Acker, Tyson Foods, Stanley Black, Decker, Jane Fraser, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Fraser, Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler, Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Schipper, Eric Thayer, We've, Cliff Pemble Organizations: TSN, American Express, Federal Reserve, CNBC, People, University of Michigan, San Francisco Federal Reserve, U.S, PepsiCo, Bloomberg, Getty, Tyson, Management, Adobe Analytics, Furniture, Citigroup, University of St, Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Caribbean . Booking Holdings, Paris Olympics, European, Ticketmaster, Cedar Fair, Flags, Wayfair, Garmin Locations: America, U.S, Minnesota, New York, Germany, Valencia , California
Mumbai, India CNN —As Indians head to the polls in a massive ongoing nationwide election, much attention has focused on the country’s explosive growth under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. There is expected to be 740 million active smartphone users in India by 2030, according to EY India. “I wanted to make similar shoes that were printed with ‘Made in India,’” Shah says. After four years of trial and error, Shah Shoes was born. Some 17 years on, Shah Shoes has helped support his family back in Bihar, including six siblings.
Persons: Narendra Modi’s, — Modi, Javed Khatri, Noemi Cassanelli, he’d, Khatri, , , , , Apoorva Mukhija, , Instagram, Mukhija, ” Mukhija, That’s, she’s, she’d, Jameel Shah, CNN Jameel Shah, Shah, wasn’t, CNN Shah, Kylie Minogue, ” Shah, , ’ ” Shah, Shah Shoes, Priyanka Chopra, Katrina Kaif, He’s, Modi’s Organizations: India CNN, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, CNN, EY, World Bank, Facebook Locations: Mumbai, India, , Bangalore, Silicon, , EY India, Dubai, London, California, , Delhi, Bihar, India’s, Dharavi, Australian
India’s half-hour zone dates back to colonial rule of India and the era when ever-faster steamships and trains were shrinking the world. The start of the 20th century saw some push from scientific associations to calibrate India’s time to GMT. That recommendation was rejected by the colonial government, which opted for a unified time that sat squarely in the middle: five and a half hours ahead of GMT. In 2015, North Korea moved out of sync with South Korea by creating “Pyongyang Time,” putting the country eight and a half hours ahead of GMT instead of nine. India’s colonial-era time zone decision making, however, reflected a chorus of political, scientific and commercial voices both from within the government and outside of it, Gordon says.
Persons: Hulton, , Geoff Gordon, Gordon, , it’s, Wong Maye, Hugo Chávez, Nicolas Maduro, Terry Gilliam, Rube Goldberg, Maulik Jagnani, Jagnani Organizations: CNN, East India Company, Hulton Deutsch, University of Amsterdam, Madras, Washington D.C, Greenwich Meridian, Greenwich Observatory, Meridian, Royal Society, Prime Meridian, Physical Laboratory, Tufts University, NPL Locations: New York, London, Tokyo, Iran, Myanmar, Australia, India, British, Madras, Chennai, , Bombay, Kolkata, Washington, London ., Greenwich, North Korea, South Korea, Korea, Pyongyang, Brazil, , Greenwich , London, China, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat
It turns out that a long pause between Federal Reserve rate actions is historically good for stocks, according to LPL Financial. The pause, which has reached 280 days, is the second-longest in modern market history, LPL noted, behind only the 2006-07 pause that reached 446 days. "Long pauses are typically good for stocks, and the gains achieved since the Fed's last hike in July 2023 are consistent with recent history," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "The pace and rise of the S & P 500 during that time are in line with what we are seeing now." Still, the strategist observed that the sectors that have historically outperformed during long pauses are financials and energy, which generally return 15% for the period.
Persons: LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder Organizations: Financial, Investors, LPL
Elon Musk appears focused on reinforcing Tesla's China business. AdvertisementTesla is facing tougher years ahead in the Chinese market, and it couldn't come at a worse time for the company. AdvertisementAfter years of steady growth in China, Tesla's sales are slippingTesla sold 62,167 cars in China in April, down 18% from a year ago, according to data released Tuesday by the China Passenger Car Association. Inexpensive Chinese cars are also competing with Tesla in important European and Scandinavian markets, a traditional stronghold for Musk. After his latest visit to the region, Musk appears to be sending reinforcements to the Chinese market.
Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, , Elon, BYD, China couldn't, Musk, Tom Zhu Organizations: Service, Elon Musk's, Shanghai Gigafactory, China Passenger Car Association, China, Tesla, BYD's, Ford, GM Locations: China, Shanghai, California, Mexico, Tesla's
This is in part the doing of so-called "golden visas," hugely popular residency visas for foreign investors. And they purchased more Portuguese golden visas than any other nationality in 2022. Related storiesBut as Portugal has experienced a worsening housing affordability crisis, Portuguese public opinion on golden visas has soured. Last year, the country changed the terms of its golden visa program to exclude real estate investment. Other southern European countries are following suit, similarly pointing to skyrocketing real estate prices.
Persons: , They're, they're, João Pereira dos Santos, Pereira dos Santos, Nuno Fazenda, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, David Zorrakino Organizations: Service, Business, The New York Times, School of Economics, Finance, Queen Mary University of London, State, Tourism, Trade, Services, Bloomberg, Berenberg Bank, Getty, European Central Bank, Paris Locations: Greece, Portugal, Tourism, Lisbon, Athens, Spain, Southern Europe, Portuguese, London, Ramblas, Barcelona, Catalonia, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, France
Businesses are adding $90 billion in fees to consumer's bills each year, according to one estimate. US consumers spend more than $650 a year per household on "junk fees," per the CEA. AdvertisementBusinesses are adding $90 billion in surprise "junk fees" to customers' bills each year — and it is starting to backfire. Junk fees are hidden costs that are added to product prices. Last June, President Joe Biden said his administration had taken steps to crack down on junk fees.
Persons: , Noelle Weaver, Bradley Walker, Walker, Merrilee Bridgeman, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, White House Council, Economic Advisers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Wall Street, Democratic Locations: New Orleans, Charlotte , North Carolina
But for the [utilities] to rally this long, sorry, it is flashing red for the economy, telling us we're headed into the shoals of a slowdown." The average is made up of 15 major utilities stocks and has been climbing since April 16, finishing Wednesday up 0.54%. These stocks do well in a slowdown because they are not discretionary—consumers must pay their utilities bills, he said. Cramer reaffirmed his stance that signs of a slowing economy have been cropping up over the last several weeks, and this rise in utilities only furthers that theory. "At the end of the day, the [utilities], they never lie," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, we're, Cramer, Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell, he's Organizations: Dow
There's a growing risk of a stock market melt-up, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni said the return of the "Fed Put" means stocks could soar on the anticipation and realization of interest rate cuts. But stock market melt-ups are rarely sustainable and are often followed by a painful decline. With it comes increased risk of a stock market meltup," Yardeni said. For investors, the question is whether or not a potential stock market melt-up and subsequent decline will happen at prices a lot higher or lower from current levels.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, , Jerome Powell, Yardeni's Organizations: Service, Federal, Wall Street
Read previewA more intense cold war between the US and China would have a potentially dire impact on the global economy, according to an official from the International Monetary Fund. Speaking at Stanford University on Tuesday, IMF deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said that while US-China tensions haven't yet devolved into a full-blown cold war, such an escalation would be a major headwind to global growth. Advertisement"The emergence of these 'connector' countries—perhaps most notably Mexico and Vietnam—may have helped cushion the global economic impact of direct trade decoupling between the U.S. and China," Gopinath said. Zooming out, Gopinath highlighted that geopolitical instability in regions like the Middle East and turmoil stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war has sparked trade turbulence unseen since the Cold War. The IMF emphasized that trade fragmentation carries a higher price tag today, with the goods trade-to-GDP ratio now at 45% compared to 16% at the onset of the Cold War.
Persons: , Gita Gopinath, Gopinath Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Stanford University, Tuesday, Business, IMF, U.S Locations: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Russia, Ukraine
Mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were at the start of this year, but they pulled back slightly last week after several weeks of straight increases. "First-time homebuyers account for roughly half of purchase loans, and the government lending programs are an important source of financing for these homebuyers. The dip in rates caused refinance demand to increase 5% for the week, although it was still 6% lower than the year-earlier week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week but were still 17% lower than the same week a year earlier. Mortgage rates fell further to start this week.
Persons: Mike Fratantoni, MBA's, Fratantoni Organizations: Federal Reserve's, Federal Housing Administration Locations: Manhattan, New York City
An influx of over 175,000 migrants in New York City has further exposed the city's housing crisis. AdvertisementNo country in the world attracts more immigrants than the US — and no place symbolizes this better than New York City. Pushing migrants out of sheltersNew York City has managed to absorb much larger influxes of immigrants in the past. The New York City comptroller's office says the Adams administration is intentionally making life more difficult for asylum-seekers as a way to force them out of the city. "It is just a system that is meant to really discourage people from getting help from the city and from exercising their rights that they have as residents of New York City."
Persons: Eric Adams, , It's, it's, aren't, He's, who've, Elon Musk, Selcuk Acar, Susan Pozo, Pozo, Goldman Sachs, Adams, Celeste Hornbach, they've, they're, Sam Stanton, Hornbach Organizations: Service, New, New York City, Getty, Immigrants, Western Michigan University, Goldman Locations: New York City, Southern, New York, York, stoke, New
Gold stocks Among Teng's top gold picks is Canadian miner Barrick Gold . Gold ETFs Aside from stocks, Teng recommended that investors consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a good way to gain exposure to the yellow metal. "ETFs are highly liquid and can be bought and sold daily on the open market, making it easy to adjust a portfolio's gold exposure when needed," he said. He added that ETFs with exposure to the mining sector were an "attractive option," highlighting the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ( GDX ) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF ( GDXJ ). While Teng is bullish on specific stocks within the ETFs, he notes that they broadly capture "the most popular large-cap and mid-cap gold miners funds," thereby offering a "relative balance in one's gold portfolio."
Persons: Kevin Teng, Teng, Barrick, Newmont, Will McDonough, McDonough Organizations: Wrise, CNBC Pro, Barrick Gold, Newmont Corporation, Wall, Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, New York Stock Exchange, BHP, Gold Miners
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
"That all really kind of plays right into Ollie's hands." Her $92 price target implies about 17%% upside from Monday's close. The average analyst has a buy rating and target for shares suggesting upside of more than 12%, according to LSEG. Ollie's shares are lagging the broader market in 2024 with a gain of almost 5% versus the S & P 500's 9% gain. OLLI 1Y mountain Ollie's shares over the past 12 months.
Persons: Anthony Chukumba, it's, Price, Melanie Nuñez, Ollie's, Nuñez, Chukumba, OLLI, Truist's Scot Ciccarelli, Ciccarelli, TJ Maxx, BofA's Nuñez, Chukumba's, FirstCash Organizations: Capital, Federal, Amazon, Walmart, Bank of America, Wall, Ross Locations: McDonald's, Harrisburg , Pennsylvania, Monday's, Ollie's
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
Xi is spending two days in France, meeting French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday before heading to Serbia and Hungary. "I'm calling for an 'aggiornamento' because China is now in excess capacity in many areas and exports massively to Europe," Macron told La Tribune Dimanche, per a Bloomberg translation. She said China's trade practices are leading to unfair trade that are "market-distorting" and "could lead to deindustrialization in Europe." China has pushed back on the West's claims of overcapacity, accusing the bloc of being protectionist and of trying to curb China's economic development. However, Europe — like China — isn't quite the same anymore, following years of economic malaise punctuated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Olaf Scholz, Xi Jinping's, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Matt Geraci, Geraci, Ursula von der Leyen, Von, Leyen, Léonie Allard, Allard, Xi Organizations: Service, State Authority, European Union, Business, La Tribune Dimanche, Atlantic, Associated Press, European, overcapacity, Council's Locations: China, France, Serbia, Hungary, European, Germany, Europe, Beijing, Washington, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer CEA Chair Glenn Hubbard: We're potentially on the cusp of a growth miracle with productivityGlenn Hubbard, Columbia University professor of economics and finance and former CEA chair, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the importance of growth and productivity in the economy, why he believes growth should be front and center on the campaign trail in the 2024 presidential election, the Fed's inflation fight, the rise of college campus protests, and more.
Persons: Glenn Hubbard, We're Organizations: Columbia University, CEA
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